FORWARDGRADE Request information

Know the grade before the trucks do.

Harvest quality forecasts for US grain buyers, in development: DON, aflatoxin, test weight and falling number, facility by facility.

Request information How we test
Map of the lower 48 states with every county where the method was tested shaded green, darker where more seasons were tested. Tested counties cover the Corn Belt, the Plains, the Mid-South and the East.
  • Fewer to more seasons tested
  • Not tested
Where we've tested the method on mycotoxin insurance claims for corn and wheat.

Contracts are priced months before the grain can be tested.

The weather that decides quality happens in a narrow window long before harvest. The tests happen at the pit, after the discount schedule is set.

  1. Contracts writtenPriced against a quality spec nobody can verify yet.
  2. Weather sets the riskFlowering and grain fill. A forecast belongs here, while there is still time to act on it.
  3. Loads gradedProbed and tested at the scale.

Four numbers decide what a load is worth.

DON vomitoxin
Fusarium infection in wheat, favored by wet, humid weather around flowering.
Drives discount schedules and rejections at the pit.
Aflatoxin
Heat and drought stress while the kernel fills.
A contaminated lot can be discounted or rejected outright.
Test weight
Bushel density, and a grade factor on every load.
Buyers dock loads that come in light.
Falling number
A wheat quality measure that sets milling value.
Flour millers blend and price against it.

What exists today, and what does not.

Tested

The forecasting method

Tested on public records: mycotoxin insurance claims for corn and wheat across the US, and earlier on crop yield. Each season is predicted from earlier seasons only, and the results include the years it lost. How we test

In progress

The quality panel

Public data stops at insurance claims: no national lab toxin levels, test weight or falling number by county. The facility panel is being assembled through data-licensing arrangements with facilities that test every day, and it will meet the same out-of-sample standard before any claim is published.

Built for the people who write the contracts.

Grain buyers across the US, starting in the Ohio Valley and the Mid-South.

Country elevators and co-ops

Blending strategy, discount schedules and bin space, set across hundreds of deliveries before the first truck arrives.

Distilleries

Corn bought on mycotoxin spec. Toxins concentrate in the stillage and distillers grains sold on as feed, so one bad purchase hurts two revenue streams.

Buying grain against a quality spec? Let's talk.

No pilots are running yet. If you want to be one of the first, or want to argue with the methodology, tell us who you are and we'll reply by email.

Adrián Calderón Villegas, Founder

We use this only to reply to you. See our privacy policy. Prefer email? adrian@forwardgrade.com

Sources and disclaimer

Mycotoxin claims
USDA Risk Management Agency, cause of loss data by county
Weather
NOAA NCEI nClimGrid daily county data
Flowering dates and crop yield
USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, crop progress reports and Quick Stats
County boundaries
U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundary files

Forward Grade is not affiliated with or endorsed by USDA, NOAA or the Census Bureau. The map at the top of this page shows where the method was tested on historical public data. It is not a forecast for any facility or season, not a guarantee of future results, and not financial, trading, insurance or agronomic advice. See how we test and the terms of use.